Tasmanian Election Results 2025: Jeremy Rockliff on Lead!

On July 19th, 2025, Tasmanian voters made their decision, with the Liberal Party led by Jeremy Rockliff unlocking more seats in Parliament than any other party. But nothing is final yet, with the Liberals 14-16 from 35 seats still short of 18 for a majority. Rockliff called the snap election based on a no-confidence motion passed in early June. The outcome resulted in a hung parliament.

Labor party under Dean Winter, started with its worst election results in over a hundred years at 10 seats and around 23-25% of the vote. Which means Labor party's losses number far beyond the ballot paper. I am not sure their simply going down to 10 seats can be understated or summed up as numbers on a ballot paper. 

The Greens maintained their 5 seats in the new parliament while at least four independents - Peter George, Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland and David O’Byrne and possibly 1-2 members of the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers party now hold the balance of power in Parliament.

Rockliff's Position: Leading, but Risky

On election night Rockliff called himself "very humbled" by the result. He has indicated his intention to seek recommissioning from the Governor Barbara Baker. However this is not a simple rubber stamp as without crossbench support he is risking another no-confidence motion. 

According to a recent YouGov poll, the Liberals had a 31% primary vote to Labor on 30%, the Greens 16% and independents/minors 39%. Importantly, 55% of voters say they would prefer that Dean Winter be Premier of a hung Parliament 

That reveals a nuanced view: Liberals won more seats, but public support for their leader remains fragile.

Current Tasmania State Election 25.6% Counted.

Liberals: 13 Seats
Labor: 7 Seats
Greens: 5 Seats
Others: 1

Let’s hope Premier Jeremy Rockliff hold on to Leadership rather than Dean Winter Labor/Greens minority government. pic.twitter.com/PCzBRWuoMG

— David 🇦🇺🇵🇭 (@Dave2307) July 19, 2025

Crossbench Gains: Unforeseen Power Brokers

One of the biggest changes is the ascent of an anti-salmon-farming independent, Peter George, who has won a Franklin seat. Immediately he denounced both the majors as a "bunch of squabblers" who must engage more authentically with just some of those crossbenchers. 

He will join a pre-existing cohort, which includes Johnston, Garland, O'Byrne and possibly Carlo Di Falco (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) in Lyons. There is every chance for this progressive cross bench cohort to tally ten seats—each representing an actual lever for the government to form.

Macquarie Point Stadium: The Flashpoint of the Election

Macquarie Point and the proposed stadium for the AFL has been a key flashpoint throughout. The state and national positions of Liberal and Labor are clear and supportive of the effort; the Greens and independents have been consistently organised against it. This division not only has shaped the campaign but will continue to inform and shape the negotiations in the new Parliament. 

What Comes Next: Minority Deals in Focus

Here's how the next steps could play out:

• Rockliff meets with Governor Baker to seek to keep the position of Premier.
• Negotiations/likely need to get at least 3-4 crossbenchers on side.
• Not likely the Greens are going to be a worthwhile bargaining partner for the Liberals, so it is all heading broadly to the progressive independents.
• Possible Confidence Motion: failure, and we now go back to Governor, or potentially an election again!

Yes, Rockliff is the leader of the biggest party, but he is not going to govern any confidence without crossbenchers.

Voter Sentiment: Fatigue and Frustration

This is Tasmania's fourth election in just seven years. Fatigue was readily apparent for many voters—with rocksolid pubic mistrust in both major parties. This has caused lower satisfaction scores: Rockliff at −19 and Winter at −13 (YouGov).

Why this matters:

• Instability, the lack of a clear majority will create ongoing political tensions.
• Policy progress about to hit the wall; There will be some big ticket items like the AFL stadium, budget, ferries etc., which may be stalled.
• The rise of independents with voters turning away from the big parties, trusting the grassroots voice.

Public Grappling from Election Night

On twitter @anthony_dodd1 wrote:

"Premier Jeremy Rockliff is addressing the public at the tally room, saying “Tasmanians have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government...."

Premier Jeremy Rockliff is addressing the public at the tally room, saying “Tasmanians have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government.”

While early in the vote count, there’s a swing against the opposition so far @7tasnews #politas pic.twitter.com/otmIrDkLmi

— Anthony Dodd (@anthony_dodd1) July 19, 2025

A New Political Landscape

This election communicated a message: the voters want change. They aren't going to allow Tasmania continue down the road of parliamentary theatrics.

• Liberals must step outside party walls.
• Labor must decide if it wants to form a government or step aside slowly.
• Crossbenchers, particularly progressives, hold the balance of power.

Tasmanians might be approaching a time where compromise, rather than muscle, makes things happen.

Final Picture: A Messy, Real Democracy

This isn't tidy. It's messy. Tasmania reflects the messy challenge of democracy: switching from majority rule to minority deals, tiring out voters, focusing on single-issue independents.

Rockliff leads the Liberals forward, but there is no guarantee he will govern. Crossbenchers are in the spotlight - each representing a vote that can significantly impact Tasmania's future.

No one is ruling just yet. However, people will be watching: how Mason's crossbench makes ground, whether Rockliff can charm them at all, or whether Winter is about to throw a cat amongst the pigeons.